Signs a Stock is Going to Fall

Michael Bowler | RSS | Thu, Jul 23 2009 | 2 Comments

Nobody has said it in so many words, but we are at the end of the recession. In a time when the economy is going to rise and fall as it stabilizes, it is important to know when a stock is about to falter. Everyone knows the basics. Avoid investing in companies that generate sub par earnings, has weak cash flow, or a less than adequate balance sheet. However, there are other nasty characteristics a stock can hold that will drop it into the toilet in inclement economic weather. Keep an eye out for these other symptoms that show an avalanche ahead.

It is not uncommon for a company to lower their earnings guidance. That can happen for a number of normal reasons that happen in the cycle a company goes through: slightly dropped earnings, a weakened economy, etc. Just make sure that the company in question clears the bar they set in that quarter. Why is that? Of course you’re more worried about the value of the stock than the revenue earned from them. Unfortunately, some shareholders, especially those with controlling interest are so worried about the revenue coming in and the performance of the company that value will go down as people sell for lower and lower prices to get out if they do not have faith in the management of the corporation.

It is also not uncommon for insiders at a company to sell off some shares, especially if life changes they are undertaking require quick funds. Other times, you may be looking at an insider that just wants to make some quick income or diversify their holdings. Sometimes if a bunch of executives all dispense of some of their shares at one time, you are looking at a disastrous future. You begin to wonder, “What do they know that I am not aware of?” Be very wary of executives selling at or near their low points. That tells you the executives think their money is better elsewhere, and yours very well may be too.

Another signal that a stock may be in trouble is when a company abruptly discontinues its guidance toward the investment industry. This may signal that the company has no idea or expectation to have an idea of when earnings could come in. This may also have a minor signal in the way of product or service diversification. The company and its stockholders are in trouble if the company cannot keep up with the accelerating market and/or does not come up with new, innovative products or services to keep up or stay ahead of the industry. You do not want to invest in a company that is “betting all their money on one horse.”

Keep an eye on industry trends as well. Sometimes the nature of the industry at that moment can impact that one company and its competitors at the same time. For instance, General Motors, Chrysler and Ford all came down with the same ‘disease’ at the same time, due to the same debts and the same mistakes. That was the time all GM, Chrysler and Ford stockholders bailed at once, and rightly so. Investors with a sharp eye that receive good, up-to-date news and suggestions from a website like this one may be able to limit or prevent losses just by watching these early signs.

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Tags: recession, stock, economy

Mark Cuban charged with insider trading by the SEC

Jennifer McClelland | RSS | Mon, Nov 17 2008 | 0 Comments

Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban was charged today with insider trading. He sold his shares of search engine mamma.com in 2004. Cuban had a stake of around 600,000 shares in the company and was told that the shares would be trading at below market value, so he sold his entire stake.

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Tags: company, insider, market