The answer is nobody really knows.  However, there are two main reasons why I’m not selling my shares.  First, this isn’t a surprise.  Over the past seven years, since Mr. Jobs was first diagnosed with a rare form of pancreatic cancer and underwent a liver transplant, he has taken three leaves of absence for medical reasons, most recently beginning last January.  During these periods Chief Operating Officer, Tim Cook, has managed day-to-day operations.   Based on the decline of his physical appearance I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that Mr. Job’s role in Apple’s daily operations limited throughout that period.

Second, the past seven years have been an incredibly successful period for Apple’s business and stock price.  Apple’s stock has been a ten bagger since 2004 and net income is up an even greater percentage.   Mr. Cook was managing Apple during much of this period – he had to have played an important role in that success!

It is clear Steve Jobs has been a huge inspiration and a driving force behind Apple’s phenomenal success, and that can’t be replaced.  However, I’d bet his core philosophies and vision is so ingrained in the Apple culture that in his absence the company will maintain and continue it’s phenomenal record of success.

A recent trip to the Dollar Store uncovered something kind of interesting to me; Christmas is coming early this year.

This summer’s retail sales were abysmal for the most part and it looks like even the local dollar store is trying to make up for any lost sales by starting Christmas sales early. Just behind the nearly cleaned out school supplies display at the front of the store, was Christmas decorations including lights, wreaths, and ornaments.

This year it looks as though Halloween is already over and Thanksgiving doesn’t really exist either. I don’t like Thanksgiving too much, but I will miss Halloween. One of the amusing parts about seeing the decorations at the dollar store was that there weren’t any Halloween decorations out yet. When I asked, they hadn’t gotten the truck yet.

It is not just the local dollar store that is trying to cash in on Christmas early this year. Other retailers have started to get their Christmas and winter merchandise and put it out on the sales floor hoping that anxious shoppers will start stocking up before the rush hits in November…nearly three months from now.

I am a big fan of getting Christmas shopping done as quickly as possible to beat any rush that I might have to fight with as the season approaches, but I am really not looking at buying Christmas decorations or gifts in August or September.

Nobody has said it in so many words, but we are at the end of the recession. In a time when the economy is going to rise and fall as it stabilizes, it is important to know when a stock is about to falter. Everyone knows the basics. Avoid investing in companies that generate sub par earnings, has weak cash flow, or a less than adequate balance sheet. However, there are other nasty characteristics a stock can hold that will drop it into the toilet in inclement economic weather. Keep an eye out for these other symptoms that show an avalanche ahead.

It is not uncommon for a company to lower their earnings guidance. That can happen for a number of normal reasons that happen in the cycle a company goes through: slightly dropped earnings, a weakened economy, etc. Just make sure that the company in question clears the bar they set in that quarter. Why is that? Of course you’re more worried about the value of the stock than the revenue earned from them. Unfortunately, some shareholders, especially those with controlling interest are so worried about the revenue coming in and the performance of the company that value will go down as people sell for lower and lower prices to get out if they do not have faith in the management of the corporation.

It is also not uncommon for insiders at a company to sell off some shares, especially if life changes they are undertaking require quick funds. Other times, you may be looking at an insider that just wants to make some quick income or diversify their holdings. Sometimes if a bunch of executives all dispense of some of their shares at one time, you are looking at a disastrous future. You begin to wonder, “What do they know that I am not aware of?” Be very wary of executives selling at or near their low points. That tells you the executives think their money is better elsewhere, and yours very well may be too.

Another signal that a stock may be in trouble is when a company abruptly discontinues its guidance toward the investment industry. This may signal that the company has no idea or expectation to have an idea of when earnings could come in. This may also have a minor signal in the way of product or service diversification. The company and its stockholders are in trouble if the company cannot keep up with the accelerating market and/or does not come up with new, innovative products or services to keep up or stay ahead of the industry. You do not want to invest in a company that is “betting all their money on one horse.”

Keep an eye on industry trends as well. Sometimes the nature of the industry at that moment can impact that one company and its competitors at the same time. For instance, General Motors, Chrysler and Ford all came down with the same ‘disease’ at the same time, due to the same debts and the same mistakes. That was the time all GM, Chrysler and Ford stockholders bailed at once, and rightly so. Investors with a sharp eye that receive good, up-to-date news and suggestions from a website like this one may be able to limit or prevent losses just by watching these early signs.

Well, it seems like perhaps that “battle” may be over, and Blackboard came out on top.

In my opinion, Angel Learning and Blackboard perform the same function. You can submit assignments, communicate with classmates, and get your grades on both. Now, since Blackboard has bought Angel Learning for $95 million in cash and stock, it can become a single entity that performs the tasks well.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of 5,800 schools use one of these programs.

This is just for a little fun with the topic at hand and as a dedication to my very own finals week:

Last week, Jobs announced that he would be going on a six month medical leave. Speculation about his health ranges from his pancreatic cancer has returned to he needs a transplant due to complications from the treatment of the cancer.

Investors are angry because Jobs’ appearance has not been consistent with what was being disclosed and when his health condition was finally disclosed, stock prices dropped 7% in one day.

JPMorgan says we haven’t seen the worst of it yet.

I think that we have seen the worst (as far as the financial markets are concerned). Perhaps the stock market will fall some more, we all KNOW more jobs will be lost.

So, what do you think? When do you see the economy getting back to “good.”

Apple’s shares seem to be tied to Jobs’ health concerns also, today shares fell 7%. Shares of the company have been volitile with rumors of his health in the past.

So, what would happen to shares of the company if Jobs were to leave or, worse, pass away? I think it’s time for him to start phasing someone else into the role of CEO. Apple investors need someone new to help keep the stock at a steady level.

The Dow rose 258.30, or 2.94 percent, to 9,034.69, finishing the week up 6.1 percent. The blue chips last closed above 9,000 on Nov. 5, when they stood at 9,139.27.

The Dow, the oldest of the big market indexes, fell 33.8 percent in 2008, its worst performance since 1931, during the Great Depression.

Like the Dow, broader stock indicators also advanced for the third straight session. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 28.55 percent, or 3.16 percent, to 931.80, its highest close since Nov. 5. The Nasdaq composite index rose 55.18, or 3.50 percent, to 1,632.21.

For the week, the S&P 500 finished up 6.8 percent, while the Nasdaq rose 6.7 percent.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 6.39, or 1.28 percent, to 505.84. -AP

Perhaps the market is finding a bottom. I won’t judge anything because there were plenty of early predictions about 2008 that were horribly wrong. I won’t speculate, just enjoy a rally.

Source

Christmas Eve is a quiet trading day on Wall Street, but it was enough to increase the Dow Jones Industrial average by half a point. Companies like Delta benefited as oil prices fell further to under $38 a barrel. Large retailers Wal-Mart and Target also did well as last minute shoppers packed their stores.

It wasn’t exactly the “Santa Claus” rally of some people’s dreams, but it was an end to the 5 day slump.

Source

When I was reading about this on other blogs, a comment said that you shouldn’t blame someone for working hard and being rewarded well for it…not to criticize the executives for compensating themselves with such lavish rewards. I think that is a giant load of hooey. These executives should only be rewarded if they have actually done well, and in my opinion, having to take tax payer dollars to keep their business afloat is NOT doing well.

Source

Stocks did end higher in trading on Friday because of the news.

Merry Christmas GM and Chrysler.

The news is good for the markets, and may cause temporary rallies in some of the financial sector.

The stock market has been volatile with every new news story that comes out. It almost seems like if someone sneezes on Wall Street, stocks will move…but this news is truly good news for the market.

“Just in the 12 days leading up to the Nov. 24 Citigroup bailout, short selling accounted for over 49% of the total trading volume in that company’s stock. For JPMorgan Chase, it was 41%. Bank of America: 35%. Goldman Sachs: 40%. Morgan Stanley: 37%. Wachovia : 42%. Wells Fargo: 42%.”

Each of these stocks fell by as much as 72% because of the high volumes of short selling.

Mad Money: How Short-Sellers Almost Destroyed U.S. Banking

The reason he gave for such a high cut was that global stock piles are so high.

The cut would combat reduced demand as well as the increase in supplies. He quoted the Saudi Arabian oil minster saying $75 a barrel is a fair price.

Right now, I’m just enjoying being able to fill up my car for less than $20. It helps when everything else is in the toilet to see some good news.

A rumor floating around gadget and electronic blogs says that some Best Buy stores are holding the popular game system until this Sunday.

I can’t believe that the Wii is still so hard to find. After the 2 years it has been out, it has been steadily out of stock in a lot of locations.

The department store John Lewis stopped selling portable CD players four years ago and now are restocking the shelves with them. Another store, Currys, says that it has seen sales of portable CD players jump to 45,000 in October, and a 50% sales increase from last year.

Portable CD players make a comeback – Telegraph

Capital One says it expects cumulative losses from the acquisition, but the purchase of the bank will give Capital One a greater presence in the Washington D.C. area. That could also help those in need of loans because Captial One would be able to lend more at a less expensive rate.

Porsche representatives said that the company wouldn’t make the purchase until VW shares fell under 200 euros.

Porsche finance director Holger Haerter said that the current stock price for VW is “ridiculous” and that it isn’t going to be buying the shares until they were at an acceptable price.

Not only is the Dow up (right now) over 300 points, but Citigroup’s stock is also trading almost 52% higher today, or almost 2 points, up from 3.77 at previous close.

That, to me, is a fairly impressive due to it being a financial company that has to be bailed out…

However, the executives are doing everything they can to help the company out before going so far as to attempt to sale it. It is asking the SEC to bring back a ban on short-selling. Short selling could be one of the main contributors to the current drop in stock price…after all it is a financial stock in a market that is becoming more and more hostile to financial companies’ stocks.

Citi currently holds over 200 million customer accounts. These funds in these accounts would not just disappear one day, they are FDIC insured for up to $250,000. Also, like AIG, the government feels Citi is too large to fail and would more than likely take preventative measures to keep such a large failure from happening.

I guess this means that investors don’t believe the cost-cutting measures Citi has announced in the last couple of months won’t work…or won’t bring the company back to life.

I would really hate to see Citigroup be sold to Chase (it really seems like Chase is buying a lot of failing banks) or Wells Fargo (that would be ironic).

You can read more about the recent events leading up to Citigroup’s troubles here.

Since many people aren’t building anything new or doing anything to use up stock piles of metal.

Surprisingly enough, the decision was made by the seven executives themselves because they feel like it was the right thing to do.

This is the most responsible thing I’ve heard from the financial sector in the last three months, AT LEAST. This will also help Goldman Sachs not have a backlash like other financial companies and banks whose executives continue to accept millions of dollars of bonuses.

The cuts would save the company between $700 and $800 million a year.

So many people are losing their jobs right now, and this is just one of the several making headlines. Between this, the near collapse of the auto industry, and all the stock market ups and downs, this has been a generally bad week for the economy.

I have blogged about GM and Chrysler trying to merge to help keep their heads above water during these hard times. Ford’s stocks are trading around $2 a share, or less. They are all in a lot of trouble. So much trouble that the democrats in congress are trying to get the Bush administration to help “bail out” the companies.

I was just wondering when something will be done to help out the companies…Like with the bank bailouts, I think there should be some kind of rules with helping them out. Perhaps job creation or implementing renewable energy technology…

Since the beginning of the year over 1.2 million jobs have been lost in the U.S. The stock markets, however, are taking the news easily. Usually, it seems, when bad news comes out it takes a dive, but so far today, trading is up.

In a way I feel like a broken record. Every month, for 10 months straight, the same news comes out about unemployment. Since July I feel like I have been the bearer of bad news. Besides the stock markets going up a little today, there isn’t a lot of good news floating around to report.

Now, Delta is announcing they will be imposing the $15 first checked bag fee, as well as the $25 second checked bag fee. These fees came directly from the Northwest Airlines playbook.

The fees will begin taking place starting Dec. 5th. Customers who already purchased tickets will not be charged for the first checked bag, but will be charged for the second ($50). Those flying first or business class or members of SkyMiles Medallion or WorldPerks Elite will not be charged for the first 3 bags checked (up to 70 lbs each).

With that said, in the final hours leading up to the election, both candidates are promising change. McCain is doing his usual song and dance and Obama has reverted back to the message of change and hope…the message that inspired voters to get him on the presidential ticket.

The stock markets are also holding their breath to see who will be elected tomorrow. Today was not a huge swing in either way with the Dow closing five points down, while the NASDAQ ended up five points.